A look ahead at nuclear power
According to the World Energy Outlook 2021, published by the International Energy Agency, “almost half of the emissions reductions needed in 2050 in the [Net-Zero Emissions Scenario] come from technologies that are today at the prototype or demonstration state, i.e. they are not yet readily available on the market.”
The “Net-Zero by 2050” Scenario relies on heavy reductions in energy produced from natural gas, a production method that is not easily replaced by less consistent sources like wind and solar. Under the current energy system, natural gas acts as a “bridge fuel” that provides power load when solar and wind sources are not producing electricity. The solution to this is not to add more solar or wind to the grid, but rather to find another energy source that can act as a bridge. The energy outlook acknowledges that this will rely primarily on the innovation of nuclear technologies. This understanding is reflected a second time in the Department of Energy’s record $1.85 billion budget allocation to the Office of Nuclear Energy. Demand for nuclear technology, coupled with massive fiscal spending on electric grid rehabilitation, presents a unique opportunity for nuclear power plant operators as well as constituents along the uranium supply chain (assay, enrichment, mining, waste disposal).
About 10% of the world’s electricity is generated by 441 nuclear power reactors. 50 new reactors are under construction, equivalent to 15% of the existing capacity. In 2020, these reactors supplied 2553 TWh (terawatt hours) of electricity. 2020 marked the first decline in nuclear power generation in 8 years. The top producers of nuclear energy were the US, China, and France with 790, 345, and 339 TWh respectively.
Nuclear energy provides 29% of the world’s low-carbon electricity, second only to hydroelectric. Thirteen countries produced more than a quarter of their electricity from nuclear power in 2020, with France leading (generated three-quarters of their power from nuclear).
This report seeks to describe the current state of nuclear power, the sector’s major participants and thought leaders, as well as the technology being developed to bridge the gap between today and a net-zero future.