Understanding the changes in bond prices and their relationship to other economic indicators can help us make two vital decisions when allocating a fixed-income portfolio. First is credit quality, which can be gauged by changes in the investment grade option-adjusted spread (IG OAS) or the high yield option-adjusted spread (HY OAS). The second decision is duration, which adjusts the interest rate risk within the portfolio. Duration decisions can be informed by movements of the 10-year Treasury yield, Bank Prime Loan Rate, and the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Expectation. Based on our backtests and qualitative research from other sources, we have identified nine indicators that can educate how one might allocate a fixed-income portfolio in any given market environment.

We collected the 2023 Market Outlooks from the most well-respected management firms on Wall St.

Amidst the consensus that an economic downturn is soon arriving, this paper puts forth six indicators to predict when the next recession will start, understand when it is occurring as well as confirm when it has ended. By focusing on indicators with a shorter leading interval, an estimate for when a recession properly starts should be forecasted two to three quarters in advance, an understanding of when the recession has started within one quarter, and confirmation of when it has ended within three to four quarters.